Landslide displacement forecasting using deep learning and monitoring data across selected sites

Accurate early warning systems for landslides are a reliable risk-reduction strategy that may significantly reduce fatalities and economic losses. Several machine learning methods have been examined for this purpose, underlying deep learning (DL) models’ remarkable prediction capabilities. The long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) algorithms are the sole DL model studied in the extant comparisons. However, several other DL algorithms are suitable for time series forecasting tasks. In this paper, we assess, compare, and describe seven DL methods for forecasting future landslide displacement: multi-layer perception (MLP), LSTM, GRU, 1D convolutional neural network (1D CNN), 2xLSTM, bidirectional LSTM (bi-LSTM), and an architecture composed of 1D CNN and LSTM (Conv-LSTM). The investigation focuses on four landslides with different geographic locations, geological settings, time step dimensions, and measurement instruments. Two landslides are located in an artificial reservoir context, while the displacement of the other two is influenced just by rainfall. The results reveal that the MLP, GRU, and LSTM models can make reliable predictions in all four scenarios, while the Conv- LSTM model outperforms the others in the Baishuihe landslide, where the landslide is highly seasonal. No evident performance differences were found for landslides inside artificial reservoirs rather than outside. Furthermore, the research shows that MLP is better adapted to forecast the highest displacement peaks, while LSTM and GRU are better suited to model lower displacement peaks. We believe the findings of this research will serve as a precious aid when implementing a DL-based landslide early warning system (LEWS).SUPPORTO SCIENTIFICO PER L’OTTIMIZZAZIONE, IMPLEMENTAZIONE E GESTIONE DEL SISTEMA DI MONITORAGGIO CON AGGIORNAMENTO DELLE SOGLIE DI ALLERTAMENTO DEL FENOMENO FRANOSO DI SANT’ANDREA – PERAROLO DI CADORE (BL)” and the Spanish Grant “SARAI, PID2020-116540RB-C21,MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033” and “RISKCOASTInSAR displacement data of the El Arrecife landslideGeohazard Exploitation Platform (GEP) of the European Space AgencyNoR Projects Sponsorship (Project ID: 63737

InSAR time series and LSTM model to support early warning detection tools of ground instabilities: mining site case studies

Early alarm systems can activate vital precautions for saving lives and the economy threatened by natural hazards and human activities. Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) products generate valuable ground motion data with high spatial and temporal resolutions. Integrating the InSAR products and forecasting models make possible to set up early alarm systems to monitor vulnerable areas. This study proposes a technical support to early warning detection tools of ground instabilities using machine learning and InSAR time series that is capable of forecasting regions affected by potential collapses. A long short-term memory (LSTM) model is tailored to predict ground movements in three forecast ranges (i.e., SAR observations): 3, 4, and 5 multistep. A contribution of the proposed strategy is utilizing adjacent time series to decrease the possibility of falsely detecting safe regions as significant movements. The proposed tool offers ground motion-based outcomes that can be interpreted and utilized by experts to activate early alarms to reduce the consequences of possible failures in vulnerable infrastructures, such as mining areas. Three case studies in Spain, Brazil, and Australia, where fatal incidents happened, are analyzed by the proposed early alert detector to illustrate the impact of chosen temporal and spatial ranges. Since most early alarm systems are site dependent, we propose a general tool to be interpreted by experts for activating reliable alarms. The results show that the proposed tool can identify potential regions before collapse in all case studies. In addition, the tool can suggest an optimum selection of InSAR temporal (i.e., number of images) and spatial (i.e., adjacent measurement points) combinations based on the available SAR images and the characteristics of the study area.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version